Nonprofits estimate ‘universal school choice’ could cost Florida billions

TALLAHASSEE, Florida. A Florida-based nonprofit warns that Republican plans for universal school choice could cost the state billions in the first year alone.

The Florida Policy Institute released its findings Wednesday, which contradict the state’s sharply underestimated estimates.

The price tag has risen since state Republicans announced their bill to open up school vouchers to all Florida students—regardless of ability, income, or status. House Speaker Paul Renner has made this change one of his top goals in this year’s legislative session.

“It’s about fully adapting education,” Renner said last month, “which in turn allows kids to reach their full potential.”

During a virtual press conference, FPI researchers said the bill for taxpayers could be very large.

“Our estimates are $4 billion for next year,” said FPI Senior Policy Analyst Noreen Dollard, Ph.D. “I think our numbers are very reasonable and essentially conservative.”

The non-partisan group’s valuation is about 19 times what the state thinks the law would cost, about $210 million, according to Florida House analysis.

“It’s really hard to understand what prompted such a low score,” said Mary McKillip, Ph.D., senior fellow at the Center for Educational Law, who helped produce the FPI report. “It doesn’t really seem to explain most of the assumptions we made.”

The FPI numbers vary widely because the researchers believe that public school districts will have to recoup the costs for each student who transfers to private schools, taking tax dollars with them.

In addition, based on a study of a comparable voucher program in Arizona, a “significant” number of families already paying for private tuition are likely to benefit from the expanded program, including homeschooled students. These families can access an education savings account.

Last week we asked the Senate sponsor about the possibility of high costs.

Sen. Cory Simon, R-Tallahassee, said the bill is similar to the House version but lacks the state’s assessment. He didn’t suggest what that number might be.

“We just want to make sure the dollars follow the baby,” Simon said. “And the child gets the best education possible with the participation of the parents.”

Uncertainty haunts many Democrats. Many on the committees voted against the bill, fearing it was too expensive or would draw vital funds from public education.

Sen. Shevrin Jones, of Miami Gardens, is concerned that the state is writing a “blank check” on government dollars.

“Taxpayers deserve to know where their tax dollars are being used,” Jones said Wednesday.

With overwhelming GOP majorities in both houses, bills continue to move through committees and are likely to reach the floors of the House once session begins next week.

We have reached out to House and Senate leadership to comment on the high price of FPI. As of Wednesday afternoon, we have not yet received the application.