It’s not just San Francisco – the entire Bay Area has experienced a population decline due to the pandemic

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The Bay Area has lost more than 217,000 people in the past three years, reducing the region’s population to levels not seen since 2014, according to a report from real estate brokerage Compass, which analyzed recently released data from the California Department of the Treasury.

The decline of approximately 2.1% exceeds the 1.3% decline in California’s population between July 2019 and July 2022.

San Francisco led the Bay Area’s 11 counties, with a 4.4% drop over that three-year period, accounting for a loss of 38,000 residents. The city is followed by San Mateo and Marin counties, which saw a 3.5% decline.

While San Francisco’s total population is back at levels not seen since 2012, other parts of the Bay Area have fared worse. The populations of Santa Cruz, Sonoma, and Napa counties have declined to 2010 levels, while the populations of Marin and San Mateo counties have declined to 2011 levels.

At the other end of the spectrum was Contra Costa County, which saw a 1% decline in population, equivalent to 12,700 residents. Preliminary data show that Contra Costa’s population in 2022 is likely to be at its 2017 level.

“Major population movements and migrations in any direction can have major implications for the region’s economy, housing markets, public services, quality of life and even the environment,” said Patrick Carlyle, market analyst at Compass.

The tech boom has generated significant population growth in the Bay Area, with the region’s population increasing by over 8% from 7.84 million in 2010 to its peak of 8.48 million in 2019.

However, the dynamics changed when the pandemic hit, ushering in a wide-ranging transition to remote work and a move to the suburbs.

According to a Compass report, the majority of people moving out of county in the Bay Area move to neighboring counties, which are often more affordable and less densely populated.

On the other hand, the population moving to the Bay Area comes from almost everywhere. In particular, the region receives a significant influx of foreign migration, which has been a major force supporting the population, even though internal migration rates have turned negative in recent years.

In particular, in San Francisco, net internal emigration rose nearly 450% from 2020 to 2021, but preliminary figures for 2022 are more in line with historical norms. This year has also been exceptional for net foreign migration, which went underwater for the first time in San Francisco.

Preliminary data for 2022 also shows a recovery on that front, with 3,419 new net foreign residents arriving in the city.

U.S. Census data cited in the Compass report showed Bay Area and California residents leaving the state often choose states with no income tax, such as Texas, Nevada, or Florida, states with a strong technology sector, such as Texas or Washington, or neighboring states such as Arizona and the USA. Oregon.

This trend line is especially noticeable among older home sellers. According to the California Association of Realtors, the percentage of home sellers moving out of the state jumped to 35% in 2021, but for sellers over 50, that figure jumped to 43%.

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