Donald Trump returns to Iowa planning a more disciplined campaign

DAVENPORT, Iowa – To outsiders, they looked like simple reams of paper. But for Donald Trump’s first presidential campaign, they represented a missed opportunity.

A month before the 2016 Iowa presidential caucuses, piles of so-called bail cards lay in a corner of Trump’s Des Moines suburban headquarters.

They contained the names and contact information of approximately 10,000 Iowans who attended Trump’s campaign events and responded by returning the cards, suggesting they were ready to support the reality TV star who is now looking for the White House.

In what is considered a political malpractice by Iowa standards, those who returned the cards received no follow-up contact from the campaign.

CONNECTED: Donald Trump is absent as the train of the 2024 Iowa GOP caucuses begins to roll

“None of this data has been used. None of them were introduced,” Alex Latcham, former Iowa Republican Party political director and current state director of Trump, said in an early vote. “And these people weren’t encouraged or mobilized for the caucus.”

Chuck Lodner, who was Iowa state director under Trump in 2016, did not respond to requests for comment. But by ignoring the cards, Trump’s team has essentially left a bunch of uncashed checks open, leaving him vulnerable to more organized GOP rivals. In Iowa, he was beaten by Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who continued to fight Trump state by state for three months.

As Trump returns to Iowa on Monday, he and his team are aiming for a more disciplined approach. They’re especially focused on gathering the data and digital engagement he’ll need to convince Iowans to walk through the cold and snow early next year for the caucuses.

Although his trip to the eastern city of Davenport marks his first trip to Iowa since filing his third bid for the presidency, he has hosted nearly three dozen events in the state since entering politics. Among them are several rallies that have attracted thousands of people since he left office in 2021.

CONNECTED: Trump to host first public campaign event of 2024

His team is using information from these events to compile a comprehensive list of supporters to work with. The list now includes data from a 2016 campaign that was collecting dust.

“One of our strengths is that we have a lot of data,” Trump senior consultant Chris Lacivita said. “From every donor to the rally attendee, we have all of this information that is important in a state like Iowa. This is a ground game. It’s about finding and identifying supportive voters and ensuring the campaign kicks them out.”

In the early stages of the 2024 campaign, Trump remains in a dominant position. But he faces serious challenges, including growing interest in the expected candidacy of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who made his Iowa debut last week.

Preliminary polls show that Trump remains widely popular among Republicans in Iowa, although attitudes towards the former president have deteriorated somewhat since he left the White House. Now, according to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll released on Friday, 80% say they view Trump positively, down slightly from 91% in September 2021.

The poll showed that DeSantis also gets positive feedback from Iowa Republicans, with 74% saying they have a positive rating. Notably, DeSantis’ name is well known in a state more than 1,000 miles from his own; only 20% say they don’t know how to evaluate it.

Meanwhile, the legal scrutiny surrounding Trump is also intensifying, with potential charges in the coming weeks that would make him the first former president in US history to face criminal charges.

This week, he was invited to testify before a New York grand jury that was investigating silence payments made on his behalf during the 2016 campaign, often indicating a decision on the indictments is close.

Elsewhere, the Atlanta District Attorney said decisions were “imminent” as part of a two-year investigation into possible illegal interference in the 2020 election by Trump and his allies. The Department of Justice Special Counsel is also investigating attempts by Trump and his allies to cancel the election, as well as the handling of classified documents at his Florida estate.

The momentum makes the stakes especially high for Trump in Iowa. As a former president who boasts of his position at the top of the Republican Party, he can’t afford even a small loss in the contest that starts the nomination process.

And even the most sophisticated data and digital operations may not be enough to satisfy some Iowans accustomed to having heart-to-heart conversations with those seeking the White House. Iowa GOP activists say Trump would be better off holding smaller events, including those involving influential local Republican leaders.

On Monday, Trump will deliver what was billed as an education policy speech, but he is expected to touch more broadly on his accomplishments as president and his next term agenda, including trade policy and agriculture, according to the person. familiar with his plans, who spoke on condition of anonymity to preview his remarks.

Trump will also answer questions from local reporters and is expected to make an unannounced stop at a local establishment, as he has done on other recent trips. The campaign will also receive approval from Eastern Iowa elected officials, the source said.

When he launched his campaign in Iowa eight years ago, Trump didn’t even know what a caucus was. The bizarre contests – more than 1,000 simultaneous local political rallies sponsored by the state Republican Party and led by volunteers – are not state-sanctioned primary elections and require careful organization to have supporters in every location.

In 2016, Trump hired Lodner, a former Iowa Republican Party executive who helped former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum win the 2012 Republican caucuses.

But Trump’s national team was led by a small group of aides with far less experience than the talent recruited by promising candidates expected at the start of the campaign to be strong contenders, such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.

While Trump’s celebrity drew crowds across the state to his rallies, sometimes as high as several thousand, there were few interested supporters. Many of Trump’s supporters were first-time caucus participants unfamiliar with the process. Some squandered their chance to weigh their minds by erroneously going to their typical polling place rather than the designated party meeting place.

The assumption that crowds equate to votes would be a costly lesson. If Trump got fewer than four votes for the precinct, he could have beaten Cruz.

This year, the Trump campaign named Marshall Moreau as its director from Iowa. Last year, he led the state’s Attorney General’s successful campaign for Brenna Bird. She defeated Democrat Tom Miller, first elected in 1978.

More Iowa employee announcements are expected soon, aides said.

The goal of a clearer approach to Iowa reflects broader changes in how Trump has structured his latest campaign. While his 2016 bid was a dubious upstart, with national headquarters in an unfinished commercial space in New York’s Trump Tower, his second campaign as president seeking re-election featured a behemoth sprawling out of a gleaming office towers in Virginia.

Both have been torn apart by rivalry as Trump has changed senior staff.

This time Trump took a middle approach and abandoned the traditional hierarchy. Instead of campaign manager, he trusted Florida operative Susie Wiles, a longtime adviser, to lead his operation in Florida, joined by Lacivita and former White House political director Brian Jack.

The campaign is rapidly recruiting and rapidly outgrowing office space.

Associated Press contributors Jill Colvin of New York and Hannah Fingerhut of Washington contributed to this report.