Collapse in Dallas-Fort Worth home sales worse than Great Recession

DALLAS — This story originally appeared in the Dallas Business Journal, a WFAA news partner. 

The downturn in home sales in Dallas-Fort Worth exceeds the collapse in sales experienced during the worst of the Great Recession, according to just-released figures from North Texas Real Estate Information Services.

Closed home sales in October were down 37% in Dallas and Collin counties and 32% in Tarrant County compared to the same time last year, according to the latest figures from NTREIS based on Multiple Listing Services data.

During the worst impact of the Great Recession on North Texas’ housing market, from 2008 to 2009, closed sales dropped 23% in Dallas County, 26% in Tarrant County and 10% in Collin County year over year, from peak to trough.

“It’s just crazy,” Danny Perez, managing director of DFW-based M&D Real Estate, said in an interview this morning. “The numbers are worse than the 2008-2009 drops, which is where we saw the biggest drop in closed sales in the Great Recession. We’ve had a 37% drop in one year, so, we are seeing nearly double what we saw in the Great Recession.”

The number of pending sales, a leading indicator into next month, foretells even slower home sales ahead.

Pending sales set to close in November are down 44% year-over-year in Dallas County, 40% in Tarrant County, and 39% in Collin County.

So far, average sales prices of homes are bucking the sales spiral. Dallas County is up 18%, Tarrant is up 15% and Collin County is up 9% on average sales price compared to this time last year.

“That’s just because people don’t have to sell. That’s the difference (between the current downturn and the Great Recession),” Perez said. “We’re not getting the new listings. Whereas before, we were getting a lot of inventory, new listings are down year-over-year. That’s what’s killing us on seeing a price correction.”

On the bright side, the employment picture in DFW is far better than it was during the Great Recession, with the addition of 298,000 new jobs since this time last year, Perez said. That will help the housing market, he said.

“That’s a huge difference maker,” he said.

While prices remain up year over year in DFW, they are slipping month by month, according to the latest Re/Max National Housing Report.  The median DFW home price in September stood at $399,000 — down $6,000 from the median of $405,000 in August, according to the Re/Max report. That compares to a median of $350,000 in September 2021. 

Sellers need to be realistic about pricing their homes, said Michael Coburn, broker and owner of Re/Max Town & Country, based in Allen.

“The days of bidding wars and buyers offering over asking price are behind us,” he said. “That type of market was not sustainable long term.”