Another poll shows Lee Zeldin gaining on Kathy Hochul three weeks before election

Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin is getting ever closer to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul ahead of the Nov. 8 election – with a Siena College poll released Tuesday morning showing her lead cut by a third in recent weeks.

Hochul’s shrinking lead in the governor’s race was due in part to a shift in support for Zeldin among voters in the New York City suburbs.

“Over the last three weeks, Zeldin has narrowed the deficit he must overcome from 17 points to 11 points in trying to become the first Republican in 20 years to win statewide,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said in a press release.

“However, with three weeks to go, Hochul maintains the upper hand.”

The incumbent held a 52% to 41% lead over her GOP challenger, according to the new poll, but “her five-point lead in the downstate suburbs in September has turned into a four-point lead for Zeldin in October,” said Greenberg.

Other polling has shown Hochul’s lead evaporating into the single digits with a Marist College poll released last week showing the governor ahead by just 8 points among New Yorkers who were definitely planning on casting ballots.

Another poll showing a single-digit advantage for the Democrat led RealClearPolitics to redefine the race as a “toss-up” last weekend despite Hochul’s big cash advantage in a state where registered Democrats outnumber GOP voters by roughly two-to-one.

Men now favor the Long Island pol to Hochul 49% to 44% – a nine point swing since last month when Hochul had a 48% to 44% edge, according to the Siena poll, which questioned 707 likely voters between Oct. 12-14 and had a margin of error of 4.9%.

Zeldin’s support among Latino and Jewish voters respectively jumped by 4 and 6 points, though Hochul still has majority support from both demographics in the poll.

White voters favor Zeldin by a 47% to 46% margin – just weeks after they favored Hochul by a 10-point margin in a Siena poll released Sept. 28.

His name recognition has also skyrocketed in recent weeks with just 21% of voters now unfamiliar with Zeldin compared to 36% last month and 57% ahead of the June primary election.

Yet, while Zeldin is gaining grounds with some voters, he is bleeding support with others while falling short with the overall numbers he needs to win, with his support among Black voters dropping from $12% to 2% in between September and October, according to Siena.

The gap between voters having a favorable versus unfavorable opinion – 37% to 41% – of him has also doubled to four points from two points in the last month amid a multimillion dollar barrage of attack ads launched by Hochul.

Scathing attacks from Zeldin blasting Hochul over rising crime and alleged pay-to-play schemes involving campaign donors appear to be doing limited damage where it might matter most for him.

“Hochul maintains a commanding lead in New York City, 70-23%,” Greenberg noted, which is well below the 30% threshold experts say Zeldin must cross in the five boroughs to win.

The poll shows GOP attorney general nominee Michael Henry also gaining ground against incumbent Letitia James, who is now up 51% to 40% after leading him by 16 points in September.

Incumbent Democratic Comptroller Tom DiNapoli and U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer have maintained leads of at least 20% over GOP opponents Paul Rodriguez and Joe Pinion.

DiNapoli and Schumer appear to be succeeding where Hochul and James are falling short, Greenberg explained.

“One of the main reasons Schumer and DiNapoli have wider leads than Hochul and James is independent voters. Independents favor Republicans Zeldin (9 points) and Henry (10 points), while favoring Democrats Schumer (8 points) and DiNapoli (12 points),” Greenberg said in the press release.