Zero aviation will need up to $1 trillion in carbon offsets by 2050

Growing demand for air travel is counteracting the aviation industry’s ambition to achieve zero emissions by 2050. Carbon Offsets Needed – Or Fewer Passengers

Rising global demand for air travel and air cargo means that by 2050 the aviation industry will need to spend $1 trillion in carbon offsets to achieve zero climate impact, unless the industry and frequent flyers change their business as usual.

This estimate is based on a study of the ways in which the aviation industry can reach net zero. Industry impacts on climate include carbon emissions from jet fuel combustion (aviation accounted for 3 percent of global carbon emissions from fossil fuels in 2019) and even more significant factors such as aircraft contrails, which can create more heat-trapping clouds in the Earth’s atmosphere.

Stephen Davis of the University of California, Irvine and colleagues modeled nine scenarios to calculate the carbon cost of aviation through 2050. fuel — it turned out that by 2050 the aviation industry would still need to spend at least $60 billion to offset carbon emissions.

“The industry cannot achieve zero climate impact without [carbon] removal,” says Stephen Davis of the University of California, Irvine.

Some airlines might be tempted to buy carbon offsets altogether, rather than directly reducing their climate impact, if that turns out to be the cheapest route. But “there’s a lot of debate about carbon removal” and whether they have a meaningful impact, says Candelaria Bergero of the University of California, Irvine.

Reduced demand for air travel could make a significant contribution to the development of zero aviation, but trends point to the opposite. “Changes in demand can be a really important source of emission reductions, but all of our scenarios assume an overall increase in demand by mid-century, given the expected growth in population and global prosperity,” says Davis.

Replacing with biofuels or synthetic fuels can help, but only up to a point. Without a sharp decline in aviation demand, the demand for sustainable aviation fuel in all scenarios will be more than double the total global biofuel production in 2019. To double the production of biofuels, the world will need to allocate about three million square kilometers of land. for crops, the equivalent of one third of the area of ​​the United States.

Despite the fanfare surrounding hydrogen-powered aircraft or electric aircraft with improved batteries, such technologies are unlikely to make a significant contribution to reducing aviation’s climate impact because they can only power small aircraft and sustain short flights, Davis said.

The aviation industry has an ambitious goal of improving aircraft energy efficiency by 2% or more per year, Davis said, which alone could offset more than half of future growth in air travel demand.

“Reducing the cost of zero-emission aviation requires new technologies with greatly improved efficiency in both fuel production and propulsion,” says Grigory Soloveichik, former program director at the US Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy.

Meanwhile, companies making informed business travel decisions could spur the industry to move towards zero aviation. “I see real opportunities for corporate action that favors more efficient aircraft, low contrail flying, and especially increased demand for sustainable jet fuel,” says Davis.

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