Will Putin detonate a nuclear bomb in Ukraine? Masha Gessen and Evgenia Albats debate at an event at New York University

Evgenia Albats spoke with New Yorker journalist Masha Gessen about the possibility of Russian President Vladimir Putin using nuclear weapons during the invasion of Ukraine.

What are the chances that Vladimir Putin will use nuclear weapons against Ukraine? Masha Gessen, a reporter and writer who covered Russia for the New Yorker for almost a decade, tried to answer this question during a debate with Evgenia Albats, a Russian journalist, at New York University’s Jordan Center for Advanced Study of Russia.

Albats, editor-in-chief of the banned independent Russian magazine New Times, was forced to flee her country last August after being prosecuted for covering the war with Ukraine. Since then, she has taken a position as distinguished journalist at the Jordan Center, where she often takes part in debates with other well-known journalists.

Putin’s messages about nuclear weapons have been mixed – in October 2022, eight months after the start of the war, he said that no need for nuclear weapons in Ukraine. A month earlier, he accused Western countries of engage in nuclear blackmail threatening retaliatory strikes against Russia, and warning that these tactics could “turn around and point them out.” Some analysts take Russia’s threats as empty propagandabut Gessen believes that this argument underestimates their seriousness, according to the thesis they put forward in a New Yorker article published last November.

“I am not saying that Putin is going to use nuclear weapons,” Gessen said. “What I’m saying is that it’s not impossible, and that most of the arguments we’ve relied on to say it’s completely impossible are wrong. Not necessarily wrong, but wrong.”

In addition to her work at the New Times, Albats hosted the talk show “Absolute Albats” on Ekho Moskvy, the only liberal radio station left in Russia. The show was taken off the air a week after the start of the war in Ukraine. A few months later, in August, she moved to the United States after Russian authorities fined her for allegedly spreading disinformation and called her a “foreign agent,” which led her to fear she would be arrested if she stayed in the country.

Although Gessen said they did not believe Putin would never use a nuclear weapon, they agreed that he could refrain from nuclear action for fear of retaliation. They said that since Ukraine’s allies have the ability to destroy the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which includes Russian Navy ships in the Azov, Black and Mediterranean Seas, in the event of a nuclear attack, Russia’s military potential would be significantly weakened. .

The two speakers disagreed on Putin’s incentives to go to war and the possible use of nuclear weapons. Albats argued that Putin’s decision to go to war was partly driven by upcoming Russian elections and that his desire to stay in power would make it unlikely that he would use nuclear weapons.

“He expects to be re-elected in 2024,” Albats said. “Because he is an autocrat, he needs support.”

Gessen pointed to Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea, part of Ukraine, as contributing to the ideology that led to the current hyper-nationalist war effort, which Putin presented as a reconquest. the land rightfully belongs to Russia.

However, according to Gessen, Putin may not have a choice. Senior Kremlin officials criticized Putin’s behavior Ukrainian conflict. Gessen noted that if Russia used nuclear weapons, Putin and his associates would become “international pariahs” and possibly be prosecuted for war crimes if they lost.

“If he faces the possibility of a military defeat — if he faces the possibility of not being able to get this re-election — what will happen?” Gessen said. “In his mind, he is facing death… What other options does he have?”

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