NYC suspects arrested for felonies more likely to be re-arrested under bail reform: study

Suspects arrested for serious crimes in the Big Apple are more likely to be re-arrested after the state’s controversial bail reform measures go into effect, according to a new study.

Researchers at John Jay’s Data Collaborative for Justice determined that 47% of those arrested on felony charges were later re-arrested within the first two years after the reforms passed on January 1, 2020, higher than the pre-reform rate of 44.6. %.

The study found that the number of criminal defendants who were then re-arrested on violent crime charges was also 3.3 percentage points (17.3%) higher after bail was posted than before (14%). And the number of those handcuffed on firearms charges after committing a felony also rose by 3.6% after the reforms, up from 2.8%.

The reforms banned judges in the state from setting bail for misdemeanors and non-violent crimes, allowing most defendants to remain free while their cases are pending.

The researchers reviewed more than 15,000 post-reform criminal cases and compared them to similar cases in 2019.

Taking into account both felony and misdemeanor arrests together, the study found that recidivism decreased after bail was posted. The overall re-arrest rate of all defendants fell to 43.8% over the two-year period from a pre-reform rate of 50%, the researchers found.

“Removing bail on most non-violent misdemeanor and felony charges reduced recidivism,” said researcher René Ropak, co-author of the study. “But we didn’t find any reductions for violent arrests or re-arrests with firearms.”

The study comes amid ongoing debate over the statute, which was approved by state legislators in April 2019 and went into effect the following year — politicians like Mayor Eric Adams have repeatedly called for changes to keep more repeat offenders locked up.

Examples of repeat offenders wreaking havoc after being suspended abound.

In a report last year, The Post found that one in five scammers arrested for burglary or theft in New York last year was rearrested on felony charges within 60 days.

Statistics show that the number of alleged recidivists has tripled since 2017, before New York City’s controversial bail reform law went into effect in 2020.

In September career criminal Waheed Foster became the epitome of failed reforms after he was arrested for videotaping beating a woman in a Queens subway station.

Foster, 41, was still on parole for assault when he was arrested on misdemeanor charges in August, but was released by a judge under the reforms and was eventually charged with heinous assault on a woman the next month.

Michael Rempel, another author of the study, said it was not a response to the political controversy over the statues – it was just a scientific take on the statistics.

“The results of this study and the discussion of serious repeat offenders are not necessarily contradictory,” Rempel said. “We do not look at the overall rate of rearrests and say that in general such people are often rearrested. We are testing the pledge reform.”

Other findings included that defendants with previous criminal records or pending cases were significantly more likely to be re-arrested, both on and before bail.

Since the bail reform law went into effect, 61.7% of defendants with a criminal record have been re-arrested compared to 26.1% without a criminal record.

Before the reforms, 62.5% of professional criminals were rearrested, compared to 37.7% of those without a criminal record.

The same applies to suspects whose cases are pending: 68.8% were arrested on a new charge under the reforms, compared to 39.4% of those who did not yet have a case.

Before the reforms, these figures were 62.8% and 47.7%, respectively.

The reforms, which were later changed to increase the number of bail cases, nonetheless remain the subject of heated debate, with critics blaming them for increased crime and recidivism.

“The bail was designed to ensure people get back in court,” one law enforcement source said. “The poor can’t afford bail, so in theory it was a good chance. However, now he allowed these unfortunate criminals to continue to commit crimes.

“Damn if you keep them in jail awaiting trial,” he said. “Damned if they let you go because they keep committing crimes. It’s a broken system.”

NYPD Commissioner Keechant Sewell, who has long advocated strengthening the law, said Wednesday that more needs to be done to curb recidivism.

“I never hesitated that judges should be able to determine if someone is at risk to public safety when they decide whether to take custody, bail or release,” Sewall said.

“We need to be able to fight relapses. We have people walking into our stores, getting turnout tickets and coming back the same day, and there needs to be a way we can combine these crimes to be able to be charged with a more serious offense.”

Additional Report by Bernadette Hogan and Tina Moore