No, the tradition of predicting the weather on Groundhog Day did not originate in America.

Every year on February 2nd, Punxsutawney’s Phil comes out of the ground to tell the American public whether there will be six more weeks of winter or whether spring will come sooner. Legend has it that if he sees his shadow and retreats into his hole, the cold weather will continue until March. If he does not see his shadow, then spring will begin.

A holiday called Groundhog Day is celebrated in the United States and Canada. But is the practice of predicting the weather with the help of animals exclusively American?

Did the tradition of predicting the weather on Groundhog Day originate in America?

No, the tradition of predicting the weather on Groundhog Day did not originate in America – its roots go back to pre-Christian Europe.

“Groundhog Day” is now a holiday unique to the United States and Canada, but is related to European holidays held in early February, when weather forecasting was part of their tradition.

The Library of Congress refers Groundhog Day to the pre-Christian Celtic holiday of Imbolc, which took place between the winter solstice and the vernal equinox. In the Gaelic cultures of Ireland and Scotland, a mythological witch or goddess associated with storms, winter and the creation of the weather named Kaileh, led Imbolc to gather firewood for the remainder of the winter, according to the Beltane Fire Society, a Scottish organization that aims to educate the public about Celtic festivals. If Kaileh intended to prolong the winter, she would make the weather bright and sunny on Imbolc in order to gather a lot of firewood. But if the weather was rough on Imbolc, it meant that Kaileh was sleeping, and winter was almost over.

Imbolc later evolved into a holiday called “Candlemas” in the Christian calendar, according to the Library of Congress. Several old Candlemas rhymes include references to the weather forecast, all of which equate Candlemas’ bright sunny day with a longer winter.

The West Virginia Department of Natural Resources reports that the Germans added to this tradition the use of a badger for weather forecasting—the Philadelphia office of the National Weather Service says it was a badger or “sacred bear”—but the rules reflected those that are observed for the groundhog today: If it was sunny, the badger was casting shade, which meant that there were still six weeks of winter ahead.

Marmots, a species native to North America, became a favorite animal when the Germans immigrated to western Pennsylvania. According to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, the new, Americanized tradition survived until the first official trip to today’s Groundhog Day venue at Goblers Knob in 1887.

While Groundhog Day may be the most famous of today’s weather forecasting holidays, it’s not the only one left. In Serbia, for example, bears predict the end of winter on a holiday on February 15 called Candlemas. On the German Day of the Seven Sleepers at the end of June, the weather on that day should predict the average weather for the next seven weeks. In the United Kingdom, Saint Swithin’s Day on 15 July should mean 40 consecutive days of rain or sunshine depending on the weather on that day.

Finally, Imbolc will once again be a public holiday in Ireland. The Irish government announced in January that it would be celebrated on the first Monday in February starting in 2023. The Irish government has not mentioned any weather forecasts for the return of the holiday, not even a hag, a badger or a groundhog.

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