Life expectancy could be up to 14 years shorter in violent countries

Human life expectancy is less predictable, and the life expectancy of young people can be up to 14 years shorter in violent countries than in peaceful countries. (CREDIT: Creative Commons)

Life expectancy is less predictable and young people’s life expectancy could be up to 14 years shorter in violent countries than in peaceful countries, according to a new study by an international team led by Leverhulme’s Oxford Center for Demographic Sciences. He reveals a direct link between the uncertainty of a life of violence, even for those not directly involved in violence, and the “double burden” of a shorter and less predictable life.

According to the study, violent death is responsible for a significant proportion of differences in lifelong uncertainty between violent and peaceful countries. But the study says: “The impact of violence on mortality is not limited to shortening lives. When violence usually kills people, those left behind face uncertainty about who will be next.”

Lead author, Dr José Manuel Aburto of Leverhulme Oxford Center for Demographic Sciences and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, adds: “Most striking to us was that lifetime uncertainty has more to do with violence than life expectancy. Thus, when analyzing changes in mortality patterns, one should not lose sight of the uncertainty of life expectancy.”

Using mortality data from 162 countries and the Intrinsic Peace Index between 2008 and 2017, the study shows that the most violent countries also have the highest lifetime uncertainty. In the Middle East, conflict-related mortality at a young age is the main cause, while in Latin America a similar pattern emerges from homicide and interpersonal violence.


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“The thing that struck us the most was that lifelong uncertainty has more to do with violence than life expectancy,” said Dr. José Manuel Aburto.

But between 2008 and 2017, life expectancy uncertainty was “surprisingly low” in most countries in northern and southern Europe. Although Europe has been the most peaceful region during this period, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will affect this.

In high-income countries, recent declines in cancer deaths have helped reduce life-course uncertainty. But in the most violent societies, even those not directly involved in violence experience lifelong uncertainty.

The report states: “Cycles of poverty-insecurity-violence reinforce pre-existing structural patterns of disadvantage for women and fundamental gender imbalances at a young age. In some Latin American countries, the number of murders of women has increased over the past decades, and being in an aggressive environment creates health and social problems, especially for children and women.

Global lifetime uncertainty (SD) and violence rates (GPI inner world) for men and women assuming they live to age 10 in 2017. (TEACHING: Science Advances)

Study co-author Professor Ridhi Kashyap of the Leverhulme Center says: “While men are the main direct victims of violence, women are more likely to experience non-fatal consequences in the context of violence. These indirect effects of violence cannot be ignored as they reinforce gender inequalities and can trigger other forms of vulnerability and causes of death.”

“Global violence is a public health crisis with huge public health implications,” said Dr. Vanessa di Lego.

According to the report, lower life expectancy is generally associated with greater life expectancy uncertainty. In addition, living in a violent society breeds vulnerability and insecurity, which in turn can lead to more violent behavior.

Projected lifetime uncertainty by sex, ranked from highest to lowest lifetime uncertainty in the most violent and peaceful countries. (CREDIT: Scientific advances)

Countries with high levels of violence have lower life expectancy than more peaceful ones: “We estimate that the difference in life expectancy at age 10 between the least and most violent countries is about 14 years… In El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala and Colombia. The gap in life expectancy with high-income countries is mainly due to increased deaths from homicide.”

Study co-author Vanessa di Lego of the Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital adds: “It is striking how violence itself is a major driver of inequality in lifelong uncertainty. One thing is certain: global violence is a public health crisis with huge public health implications and should not be taken lightly.”

For more science news, visit our New Discoveries section at The bright side of the news.

Note: Materials provided above by the University of Oxford. Content can be edited for style and length.

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