Drought in the Horn of Africa will be the worst in the history of the region

The Horn of Africa could soon face its worst drought on record as forecasts predict dry weather during the rainy season from March to May this year. This will be the sixth consecutive unsuccessful rainy season in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia since the end of 2020. The severe drought, along with conflict and ongoing economic pressure, has displaced over a million people and created a hunger crisis for over 20 million others.

If the rainfall is below average for the next three months, it will be the worst drought in the region in at least 70 years, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The drought has brought the region to the brink of starvation, killing crops and millions of livestock. The WMO forecast notes that if temperatures remain above average in May, crops will wilt and vegetation will die, leading to a reduction in livestock feed.

“The consistent pattern of droughts is really detrimental to livelihoods,” says James Verdin of the US Agency for International Development.

The Famine Early Warning Network’s statement on the situation in Somalia said that humanitarian aid has so far averted hunger for millions of people, but the crisis is not over and millions more still need food assistance urgently.

The drought was caused by three years of low temperatures in the Indian Ocean, as well as a rare triple La Niña event in the tropical Pacific. Climate change has also contributed to rising temperatures and a longer-term drought trend in the region, says William Roberts of Northumbria University in the UK.

Some preliminary models show that the opposite El Niño pattern is developing in the Pacific by the end of 2023, which could lead to wetter weather in the region. “Traditionally, when there is an El Niño, we see higher than average rainfall in East Africa,” says WMO’s Robert Stefansky. However, heavy rain can bring its own problems such as flooding and disease.